Current Research on Gun Violence

This regular update is prepared by the Research Department of the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence.   This issue has three sections: Gun Violence Prevention Studies, Research Resources, and Upcoming Research/Research in Progress.


The report is informational and is not meant for publication.  Selected research summaries are posted to the Brady website.  All the studies have links to the abstract or full text version of the article, where available.


For past studies and all kinds of useful factual information, go to:

http://www.bradycampaign.org/facts.

Questions or comments can be directed to Becca Knox at bknox@bradymail.org.


Gun Violence Prevention Studies


Title: Reducing Firearm-Related Violence on College Campuses—Police Chiefs’ Perceptions and Practices

Brady URL: http://www.bradycampaign.org/studies/view/161

Publication Date: December 2009

What Does It Say? Eighty-six percent of campus police chiefs disagree or strongly disagree that allowing students to carry concealed weapons on campus would prevent some or all campus killings (p. 250).

Only 5 percent agree (3 percent) or strongly agree (2 percent) that allowing guns on campus will prevent killings.  Nine percent were “uncertain.”

Over the past five years, 35 percent of U.S. college campuses have had a firearm incident (e.g. carrying a firearm on campus, firearm stored in a residence hall, or an actual shooting) (p. 249).

The results derive from surveying a national random sample of campus police chiefs.  The sample was generated from the Directory of the International Association of College Law Enforcement Administrators.  The survey response was 70 percent (417/600).

How Can I Use It? Use the results of this study to combat the NRA’s legislative campaigns to force universities and colleges to allow guns on campus.

Citation: Thompson, Amy, James H. Price, Adam Mrdjenovich, Jagdish Khubchandani, “Reducing Firearm-Related Violence on College Campuses—Police Chiefs’ Perceptions and Practices,” Journal of American College Health, 58(3)(2009):247-254

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Title:
College Counselors’ Perceptions and Practices Regarding Anticipatory Guidance on Firearms

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19892650?itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum&ordinalpos=1

Publication Date: October 2009

What Does It Say? Only a quarter of counselors at university and college counseling centers talk to their gun-owning patients or those with access to guns about the dangers of guns (p. 136).

This study is based on surveys returned by 59 percent of a national random sample of counseling centers (n=361) from the membership list of the Association for University and College Counseling Center Directors.

How Can I Use It? In the wake of the Virginia Tech and other campus shootings, it is critical to keep guns off campus and to assess and address access to firearms by students, particularly those who may be having mental health problems.

Citation: Price, James, Adam J. Mrdjenovich, Amy Thompson, Joseph A. Dake, “College Counselors’ Perceptions and Practices Regarding Anticipatory Guidance on Firearms,” Journal of American College Health 58(2)(2009):133-139

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Title: Concealed Carry Weapon Permits: A Second Amendment Right or a Recipe for Disaster on Our Nation’s Campuses?

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19892645?itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum&ordinalpos=1

Publication Date: October 2009

What Does It Say? The Executive Editor of the Journal of American College Health, Reginald Fennell, Professor of Health Studies at Miami University in Oxford, OH, pens this editorial to voice veiled support for allowing guns on campus and to call for more research into the question.  The editorial does not reflect the views of the magazine or the publisher.

How Can I Use It? Be cognizant of this editor/professor’s position on the issue.

Citation: Fennell, Reginald, “Concealed Carry Weapon Permits: A Second Amendment Right or a Recipe for Disaster on Our Nation’s Campuses?” Journal of American College Health 58(2) (2009):99-100

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Title: How to Find Nothing

http://www.bradycampaign.org/studies/view/158

Publication Date: September 2009

What Does It Say? This article uses two studies about guns to explain how the misapplication of research methods generates results that are meaningless.

In the case of the two studies reviewed in this article, these meaningless results were then used as evidence to support gun lobby policy agendas.

One of the studies is the nonsensical “Duggan study,” a work-in-progress on gun shows released to the public in the fall of 2008 and picked up by the New York Times Economix blog http://www.economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/the-gun-show-loophole-and-gun-deaths

By structuring the study in a way that made no sense in terms of how gun trafficking works, the authors found that “…gun shows do not increase the number of homicides or suicides and that the absence of gun-show regulations does not increase the number of gun-related deaths as proponents of these regulations suggest.”   The Economix blog subsequently published a critique of the study by five prominent gun violence prevention researchers http://www.economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/01/the-gun-show-loophole-revisited

How Can I Use It? The NRA has already started using the “Duggan study” to argue against closing the gun show loophole.  Use this analysis to undermine the usefulness of the “Duggan study” to the NRA.

Citation: Hemenway, David, “How To Find Nothing,” Journal of Public Health Policy 30(3)(2009):260-268

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Title:  A Randomized Controlled Feasibility Trial of Alcohol Consumption and the Ability to Appropriately Use a Firearm

http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/15/6/409.abstract?sid=0663527c-5911-4144-87e2-14314dd20866

Publication Date: December 2009

What Does It Say? This article documents the feasibility of a controlled research trial to study alcohol’s impact on firearm use.

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have set up an interactive firearm simulator to test reaction times of untrained shooters to various scenarios.   The preliminary results find evidence that intoxicated subjects fire more quickly in scenarios requiring judgment relative to controls.  In this trial, all participants had no firearm training.

How Can I Use It? The results are tentative pending a larger trial.  The results bring into question the wisdom of the NRA’s push to allow guns on college campuses and into restaurants serving alcohol.

The results also point to the need for comprehensive common sense laws to protect the public generally from inebriated gun owners, in the same way motor vehicle laws aim to protect the public from drunk drivers.

Citation: Carr, BG, DJ Wiebe, TS Richmond, R Cheney, CC Branas, “A Randomized Controlled Feasibility Trial of Alcohol Consumption and the Ability to Appropriately Use a Firearm,” Inj Prev 15(2009):409-412

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Title: Keeping Firearms from Drug and Alcohol Users
http://www.injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/15/6/425.extract?sid=359c4b94-bd5e-4d23-bc58-3daca665c4c0


Publication Date: December 2009

What Does It Say? This policy essay maps out the case to prohibit guns to alcohol and drug abusers and provides guidance on how to make such provisions enforceable within the context of the Brady background check system.  An example of an enforceable alcohol-related restriction is using convictions for drunk driving as the prohibiting offense.

How Can I Use It? Use this article to inform decisions about state and federal policy priorities and strategies.

Citation: Webster, DW and JS Vernick, “Keeping Firearms from Drug and Alcohol Users,” Injury Prevention 15(6)(2009):425-427

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Title: Rage Grows in America

Brady URL:
http://www.bradycampaign.org/studies/view/159

Publication Date: November 2009

What Does It Say? This report describes recent examples of the frightening behavior of far-right and anti-government extremists, including their interest in guns.  For example, it tells the story of Nancy Genovese, a 53-year-old mother of three from Long Island who, in reaction to an Iowa National Guard exercise that caused her to suspect an imminent government takeover, purchased an XM-15 assault rifle and began snooping at an Air National Guard airbase (p. 24).

How Can I Use It? Use the anecdotes in this report to document the connection between far-right extremists and the gun issue.

Citation: Anti-Defamation League, Rage Grows in America: Anti-Government Conspiracies, November 2009

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Title: Indicators of School Crime and Safety: 2009


Brady URL
: http://www.bradycampaign.org/studies/view/160

Publication Date: November 2009

What does it say? This report pulls together the most up-to-date information from a number of sources about violence and schools, including murders and suicides of school-aged children and teens at school and away from school.

Among children and teens ages 5 to 18, 80 percent of murders and 41 percent of suicides are committed with guns (all locations, CDC data (2006), calculations by Brady Center).

During school year 2007-2008, twenty-one 5-18 year olds were murdered “at school,” defined as “while the victim was on the way to or from regular sessions at school or while the victim was attending or traveling to or from an official school-sponsored event.”  Five 5-18 year olds committed suicide at school.   The table is available here: http://www.nces.ed.gov/programs/crimeindicators/crimeindicators2009/tables/table_01_1.asp

For additional research on the topic of violent death, guns and schools:

How can I use it? Use this information to document that we have too many murders of school children in the United States, whether in school or in the community.

Citation: U. S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, Indicators of School Crime and Safety: 2009, Washington, DC: December 2009

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Title: America Caught in the Crossfire: How Concealed Carry Laws Threaten Public Safety

http://www.lcav.org/concealedcarry

Publication Date: December 11, 2009

What Does It Say? This new brochure from the Legal Community Against Violence provides a policy overview of concealed weapons legislation, including recommendations for elements of model policies on guns in public.

How Can I Use It? Use this brochure to educate policymakers, the media, and elected officials about the issue of carrying guns in public.

Citation: Legal Community Against Violence, America Caught in the Crossfire: How Concealed Carry Laws Threaten Public Safety, December 2009

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Title: Blueprint for Federal Action

http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/downloads/pdf/blueprint_federal_action.pdf

Publication Date: January 4, 2010

What Does It Say? Mayors Against Illegal Guns has created a comprehensive list of 40 administrative action steps the federal government can take to improve the enforcement of existing gun laws.

The report provides recommendations in six key areas, including:

  • improving background checks,
  • policing problematic gun shows,
  • ATF resources and structure,
  • more effective crime gun tracing,
  • more effective partnerships among government, law enforcement, community groups, and responsible gun industry representatives, and
  • enforcement of existing laws on especially dangerous firearms.

How Can I Use It? Use this report to educate the public on what can be done by the Obama Administration to strengthen enforcement of gun laws and to expose the false rhetoric of the NRA.

Citation: Mayors Against Illegal Guns, Blueprint for Federal Action, January 2010

Research Resources

  • CDC death data for 2007 will be released in April.   The most recent data available as of January 22, 2010 is: CDC deaths – 2006; CDC injuries – 2008; FBI police reports – 2008.


Upcoming Research/Research in Progress

Title: Summit on Guns and Crime

URL: no URL available

Date: November 12, 2009


What Does It Say?
This summary is based on unpublished materials provided to the Brady Center by the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF).  PERF will release a published version of the results as part of its Critical Issues in Policing series.  The initial results were presented at a meeting November 12, 2009 in Washington, DC that Paul Helmke attended (along with a representative from the National Shooting Sports Foundation and the NRA).

PERF conducted research on local police agencies’ experiences with gun crime to identify strategies that can be adopted now to reduce gun crime.  The study included a survey of 164 local police departments with service populations of 100,000 or more (response rate of 65 percent), all 25 ATF field divisions, and case studies of 6 cities.

The study results point to the possible effectiveness of strong gun laws in making it harder for criminals to obtain guns in-state.  Cities in states with strong gun laws (i.e., Newark, NJ, New York, NY, and Los Angeles, CA) find that crime guns generally originate out-of-state.

The study results also indicate that many police agencies are seeing increases in criminals’ use of highly powerful weapons:

  • 50 percent of the police chiefs reported an increase in large caliber handguns (e. g. 9mm, .40 cal, 10mm, etc.);
  • 37 percent reported an increase in the use of assault weapons, and
  • 35 percent reported an increase in semiautomatic weapons with high-capacity magazines.

Sixty-four percent of the local police agencies trace all recovered guns.  ATF’s most common recommendation to local police agencies is to participate on enforcement task forces. One-third of the ATF respondents recommended that local agencies trace all guns.

A case study of Milwaukee’s notorious gun dealer, Badger Guns, showed that all 6 shootings of police in the last 2 years were committed with guns purchased at Badger Guns.  In response, the Milwaukee Police Department stationed officers near the store’s driveway and conducted targeted enforcement of traffic violations.  The operation resulted in 23 arrests – 11 for being felons in possession of a firearm and 8 for illegal concealed carry.

A major strategy to attack gun crime has been to prosecute offenders under federal law because the sentences are higher. The number of offenders federally sentenced with firearms as a primary offense has increased 230 percent from 1998 to 2008 (2,496 to 8,250).

How Can I Use It? Use this information to advocate for stronger gun laws like background checks on all gun sales, including those at gun shows, restrictions on assault weapons, and stronger enforcement authority for ATF. The results can also be used to encourage your local law enforcement agency to adopt universal tracing of all guns recovered by police.

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New National Study Says Background Checks on All Gun Sales Will Prevent Gun Violence


A landmark study released today by the UC Davis, Violence Prevention Research Program adds to the growing body of research that concludes that requiring regulation of all gun sales will prevent gun violence.  According to Garen Wintemute, MD, MPH, the author of the national report, Inside Gun Shows: What Goes on When Everybody Thinks Nobody’s Looking, “the leading proximate source of crime guns is the private sales market. More than 85% of recovered crime guns have gone through at least one private party transaction following their initial sale by a licensed retailer.”

Use the following link to see the full report :
http://www.ucdmc.ucdavis.edu/vprp 

The comprehensive study includes observations from 78 gun shows in 19 states between 2005 and 2008.)

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